The author of this video, Dr. Steven Koonin, says he is following the scientific reports published by the UN and US government, but by subtly changing wording and choosing not to mention important context this video is very likely to mislead readers. In fact, science shows heat waves are occurring more frequently and have become more intense as a result of climate change. So there are two modes. 5 . And in fact, the IPCC says that. the birth of the modern environmental movement in the 1960s, concerns about the The articles claims exaggerate the statements made by scientists about the urgency of the situation but the argument is vague, not quantitative and hand wavy. He is also correct that the need to model the entire planets climate for centuries precludes simulating the very small-scale processes that are involved in cloud formation, and this means that assumptions must be made around clouds in models. Furthermore, this melting has generated a measurable sea level rise over the last 20 years.[19]. Regarding floods, there are several types including flash, coastal and river flooding. And of course there are large swings in the annual ice loss rate these swings have tracked well both Arctic climate (on decadal scales) and with modes of climate variability and weather patterns (on the sub-decadal scale). been thinking about this for 15 years or so. This statement is not a quantitative claim, but it appears to connote that scientists are systematically attributing extreme events to climate change without evidence. This statement as well as many other statements in the post is a result of cherry-picking data, says Mark Richardson, Research Associate at Colorado State University/NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Here are three more that might surprise you, drawn from recent published research or assessments of climate science published by the US government and the UN: Why havent you heard these facts before? Our reviews are crowdsourced directly from a community of scientists with relevant expertise. I Koonin also tackles society's response to a changing climate, using data-driven analysis to explain why many proposed "solutions" would be ineffective, and discussing how alternatives like adaptation and, if necessary, geoengineering will ensure humanity continues to prosper. This is often referred to as cherry picking.. Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters by Steven E. Koonin: Conversation Starters Climate is a topic everyone in the world should participate in, regardless of nationality, race, and disposition. I did this first as chief scientist for the oil company BP, where I focused on advancing renewable energy, and then as undersecretary for science in the Obama administrations Department of Energy, where I helped guide the governments investments in energy technologies and climate science. you can quantify those probabilities, it hardly makes sense to think about Lauren Simkins, Assistant Professor, University of Virginia: that we suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, and its hard to be against Shelves: nonfiction, science. Koonin's research indicates the climate is changing and humans have influenced some of that change. So first of all, let us stand back and take a much better understanding of the problem. information from activists painting a very apocalyptic scenario? Ilissa Ocko, Climate Scientist, Environmental Defense Fund: The upshot of this is that climate models disagree on how clouds will respond to warming[9]. There is no. [11,12] That sub-field does not find that every extreme event can be tied to climate change this CarbonBrief graphic, for instance, shows extreme events around the world that have been tied to climate change, and those that havent. How should we approach the worst-case scenario Some overviews of how extreme event attribution is conducted, as well as examples of applications to specific events, include: Andrew King, Research fellow, University of Melbourne: This is a complex problem that has different facets and different solutions. Justin Schoof, Professor and Chair, Southern Illinois University: During that time the population quadrupled. Humans have broken the earths climate. And compared Phrases like climate emergency, climate crisis and climate disaster are now routinely bandied about to support sweeping policy proposals to fight climate change with government interventions and subsidies. It is true that heatwaves in the United States, although they are indeed increasing in aggregate, have increased at a slower rate than across much of the rest of the globe. Should what we have learned in the past 20 years make us 4 climate change statement review workshop . As a result, the constant repetition of these and many other climate fallacies are turned into accepted truths known as The Science.. It is the case that climate change is worsening many extreme weather events, particularly heatwaves, but this conclusion is founded on a large and growing number of peer-reviewed studies. Claim: Projecting future climate is excruciatingly difficult. My late Nobel-prizewinning Caltech colleague Richard Feynman was one of the greatest physicists of the 20th century. Figure 1 Surface elevation change rates in Greenland during 1900-1983 (a), 1983-2003 (b), and 2003-2010 (c). "Climate modeling is central to climate science." (Stephen Koonin, below) When the history of climate modeling comes to be written in some distant future, the major story may well be how the easy, computable answer turned out to be the wrong one, resulting in overestimated warming and false scares from the enhanced (man-made) greenhouse effect. a series of five phases where at first its only among the experts, then "Koonin is not a climate scientist. degrees roughly, and thats not going to make civilization fall apart. So Im not sure how this leads the author to state that there has been no change in hurricane activity in the last 100 years. Please get in touch if you have any comment or think there is an important claim or article that would need to be reviewed. The Wall Street Journal published a range of misleading claims about Greenlands ice melt in an op-ed by Steve Koonin, a theoretical physicist and professor at the New York University Stern School of Business. Parts of the early 20th century, particularly the 1930s, were very warm in the United States, Schoof explains. It appears as though most of the PragerU talking points are the same as those in his book and have not been updated to reflect being repeatedly corrected by the climate science community. The slower rates of ice mass loss highlight the dynamic, non-linear, and often asynchronous response of the ice sheet to short (annual and sub-annual) changes in weather; yet the long-term, multi-decadal trends in climate and ice mass loss are where we should focus our attention. This was regional rather than global, but can be used to make recent changes in the US seem less relevant than they are. As part of that effort, in January 2014 I convened a workshop with a specific objective: to stress test the state of climate science. Help us create a more trustworthy Internet! changing? We've received your submission. 2019), of which I was a co-author, concluded the following (among other conclusions): 1. 7 new york university . Steven Koonin, a physicist and former undersecretary for science in the Obama administration, is challenging the conventional wisdom on climate science and its impact on business and the U.S.. Koonin claims that Greenlands ice sheet isnt shrinking any more rapidly today than it was 80 years ago. In fact, as Climate Feedback noted in April 2021, the per year average ice loss during 2003-2010 is roughly 2.5 times higher than during 1900-2003. Justin Schoof, Professor and Chair, Southern Illinois University: Yes we dont know everything we would like to about the complex details of climate change but we know enough that we should do something about it. Ive Steve Koonin will present his insights and expert scientific perspective on climate change at an event moderated by Chris Varcoe of the Calgary Herald and Financial Post on Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2021 . Steve is a professor at. This is only true if the rate of annual ice loss were to remain the same as todays rate for a long time. Physicist and former CalTech provost Steven Koonin's superb 2021 book, Unsettled? solve it. The most up-to-date research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences demonstrates an increase in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes (Category 3-5) globally, supporting theoretical predictions that date back to 1987 (see figure below). In fact, an entire sub-field of climate and atmospheric science has developed in recent years specifically aimed at developing and implementing scientifically valid methods of attributing specific extreme events to climate change (known as extreme event attribution.) Its impossible to make a blanket statement about all kinds of extreme events (global warming is increasing the frequency and intensity of global heatwaves, for example, but decreasing the intensity of global cold snaps), but numerous scientists around the world now conduct research on this specific topic, and often find physically and statistically overwhelming evidence that climate change has increased the risk of specific events such as individual extreme heatwaves and extreme downpours (among other types of events). Public issues, at least in the West, go through Its shrinking has been a major cause of recent sea-level rise, but as is often the case in climate science, the data tell quite a different story from the media coverage and the political laments. Drought Extreme weather attribution Greenland Heat wave Tropical cyclones, Published on: 29 Nov 2021 | Editor: Katie Valentine. We depend on your support to operate. I came away from the APS workshop not only surprised, but shaken by the realization that climate science was far less mature than I had supposed. Yes, its true that the globe is warming, and that humans are exerting a warming influence upon it. change evolved over the past several decades? The UN report [2] states that heavy rain events have gotten more extreme and more common over a majority of land regions with good observational coverage since 1950, and although some regions dried, the general tendency is therefore higher flash-flood risk (our recent work supports this[7]). Here, Ill just focus on the claim that scientists, the media and politicians attribute every extreme event to climate change. Koonin claims that the idea that human-caused climate change is to blame for Greenlands melt is simplistic and that the annual loss of ice has been decreasing in the past decade even as the globe continues to warm. Greenlands ice melt is impacted by more than just climate change, and scientists are still working to better understand how both natural forcings and human-caused climate change affects Greenlands ice melt. He's a physicist that went to Caltech at 16 and established the Energy Biosciences Institute at Berkeley. Claim: The media, the politicians, and a good portion of the climate science community attribute every terrible storm, every flood, every major fire to climate change.. Its true that, while scientists have determined that extreme precipitation is on the rise globally due to climate change, they are still working to determine exactly how those precipitation extremes will impact flooding risk. But the. Meanwhile, at tide gauges scattered around Earths coasts there has been a median 165% increase in high-tide flooding over 19952014 relative to 19601980. Glasgow where developing countries said, We need energy and weve got the This statement is flat out wrong. Help us create a more trustworthy Internet! To counterbalance this, I'm tempted to read another climate change book by a different fella called Steven Koonin. Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us - by Steven E. Koonin. The Science, were told, is settled. and if losses were to continue at that rate, it would take about 10,000 years for all the ice to disappear, causing sea level to rise more than 20 feet, Jason Briner, Professor, Department of Geology, University at Buffalo: When I tell people this, most are incredulous. The other mode is to make the Earth a little bit more shiny to reflect a little Much of the public portrayal of climate science ignores the great late physicists advice. think we are well into stage three now, when you look at what happened in From Kjeldsen et al. But has the mainstream scientific consensus about climate Professor Koonin received his B.S. He most recently held a position at the Science and Technology Policy Institute of the Institute for Defense Analyses in Washington, DC. Timothy Myers, Postdoctoral Researcher, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: Surface elevation change rates in Greenland during 1900-1983 (a), 1983-2003 (b), and 2003-2010 (c). Five scientists analyzed the article and estimate its overall scientific credibility to be low to very low. Professor Koonin was confirmed by the Senate in May 2009 as Undersecretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy, serving in that position until November, 2011. I found great satisfaction in these roles, helping to define and catalyze actions that would reduce carbon dioxide emissions, the agreed-upon imperative that would save the planet.. Claim: Natural fluctuations in the height and coverage of clouds have at least as much of an impact on the flows of sunlight and heat as do human influences. A majority of reviewers tagged the article as: Inaccurate, Misleading. For . Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century. In this episode, I'm joined by Steven E. Koonin to discuss the consensus within the climate science community, popular misconceptions about the climate, and how we should respond to warming. As an example of a factually inaccurate statement, Koonin claims that Greenlands ice sheet isnt shrinking any more rapidly today than it was 80 years ago. And so I sit as a citizen of a developed 8 center for urban science and progress . The Greenland Ice Sheet is currently melting at a rate comparable to (or greater than) any in the past 12,000 years, let alone 80 years ago, Swain says. Koonin . Claim: Greenlands ice sheet isnt shrinking any more rapidly today than it was 80 years ago.. Learn more: 5 Questions for Beth Shapiro on Using Synthetic Biology for Conservation | 5 Questions for Jamie Beard on the Potential of Geothermal Energy | 5 Questions for Elizabeth Kolbert on Geoengineering, CRISPR, and Modern Environmentalism, Weekly analysis from AEIs Economic Policy Studies scholars, Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesnt, and Why It Matters, 5 Questions for Beth Shapiro on Using Synthetic Biology for Conservation, 5 Questions for Jamie Beard on the Potential of Geothermal Energy, 5 Questions for Elizabeth Kolbert on Geoengineering, CRISPR, and Modern Environmentalism, Discussing inflation and employment: Pethokoukis on CNBCs Power Lunch, When It Comes to Reducing Global Poverty, Bono Is Right and the Anti-Capitalists Are Wrong, James Capretta: Reforming US Health Policy. Rather than extrapolating cumulative ice loss, a peer-reviewed study that uses fine-scale ice sheet model with uncertainty quantification indicates the Greenland Ice Sheet could disappear entirely in 1,000 years. Steven E. Koonin is a theoretical physicist, professor, former Chief Scientist for the BP petroleum company, and former Under Secretary for Science at the U.S. Department of Energy under the Obama administration. There has been an increased incidence of intense precipitation events associated with tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico region. Daniel Swain, Climate Scientist, University of California, Los Angeles: Climate change is a symptom. 6 . Since human warming influences on the climate have grown steadilythey are now 10 times what they were in 1900 you might expect Greenland to lose more ice each year. The article does not discuss the linkage between physical processes driving the mass loss and human activities, hence has little logic and physical basis for making claims. Increased Flood Exposure Due to Climate Change and Population Growth in the United States. Lauren Simkins, Assistant Professor, University of Virginia: One obvious bad faith segment that caught my eye: Stephens quotes Steve Koonin, a former Obama administration official turned climate denier favorite talking head, on Greenland's melt. The American Physical Society is currently reviewing its policy statement on climate change, and Koonin has had a substantial hand in that five-year process. Lauren Simkins, Assistant Professor, University of Virginia: within a decade. We strive to explain whether and why information is or is not consistent with the science and to help readers know which news to trust. In an apparent quest for fairness when he led a committee of the American Physical Society (one of my professional organizations) to assess its statement on climate change, he recruited three scientists to represent the 97% consensus, and three contrarians, presumably to speak for the other 3%. There are, however, several key points left out of Koonins cloud argument. This video has many major errors and it is difficult to review the veracity of many claims due to the lack of referencing of sources. to 15 years ago, you can now talk about it in polite company, because people For example, both research literature and government reports state clearly that heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900, and that the warmest temperatures in the US have not risen in the past fifty years. In a nearly 13-minute appearance on Fox Business' Kudlow, Koonin pushed a number of claims from his book that contradict the established scientific consensus on climate change. Furthermore, this melting has generated a measurable sea level rise over the last 20 years.[19]. 2015[3]. It is all this information that goes into that quote. This is a really simplistic interpretation that negates physics of glacial ice and its response to annual ocean and atmospheric temperatures. November 2, 2017. its not going to happen at all. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Koonin is correct that clouds, which can have both a warming and a cooling effect on the planet, are an important part of understanding the climate and remain a challenge for climate modelers. 9 one metrotech center . There are abundant opportunities to get things wrong both accidentally and on purpose as the information goes through filter after filter to be packaged for various audiences. Thanks for contacting us. And unless theyre eliminated promptly by radical changes to society and its energy systems, The Science says Earth is doomed. Of course such a statement is simplistic, yet still likely more or less true. Analysis of "Greenlands Melting Ice Is No Cause for Climate-Change Panic" (2020). Steve is a professor at New York University and anonresident senior fellow hereat the American Enterprise Institute. A community of climate scientists has worked to develop a robust and comprehensive methodology for thorough analysis of how human-caused climate change affects extreme weather events. Global warming: Steven Koonin against the merchants of fear. that compared to other forces, demographics, technology, regulation, trade and The statements quoted below are from the video; comments are from the reviewers (and are lightly edited for clarity). and we just get on with life. [4] Though Koonin claims that Greenlands ice loss is no larger today than it was in the 1930s, Kjeldsen et al found that ice loss between 2003 and 2010 not only more than doubled relative to the 19832003 period, but also relative to the net mass loss rate throughout the twentieth century.[5]. To the Editor: Re " Tough Realities of the Climate Talks, " by Steven E. Koonin (Op-Ed, Nov. 4): The first rule in managing any crisis is: If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. heat waves in the U.S) do not adequately convey the severity of climate change in impacting communities and ecosystems worldwide. Temperatures are rising, sea level is surging, ice is disappearing, and heat waves, storms, droughts, floods, and wildfires are an ever-worsening scourge on the world. This is not supported by the report he claims to be using.. Since I Melttemperature nonlinearity and general circulation changes mean that further twenty-first-century warming has important implications for the ice-sheet mass balance, by accelerating the intensity of surface melting and amplifying [Greenland Ice Sheet] GrIS contributions to global sea-level rise.. In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that, over the last several decades, annual frequencies of high tide flooding are found to be linearly increasing in 31 locations (out of 99 tide gauges examined outside Alaska) mostly along the coasts of the Northeast/Southeast Atlantic and the Eastern/Western Gulf of Mexico, and to a lesser extent, along the Northwest and Southwest Pacific coasts. Heat waves are getting worse in the United States, especially in recent decades. He is a Fellow of several professional societies, including the American Physical Society, the American Association of the Advancement of Sciences, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. Mark Zelinka, Research Scientist, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: discussionhere. Steven E. Koonin (born December 12, 1951) [1] is an American theoretical physicist and former director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University. improvement in human welfare ever as the population quadrupled from two billion Anyone interested in this vitally important debate - over climate change, fossil fuels, a Red Team exercise, and the future of . In 2018, Trusel et. environment and climatehave oftenbeen marked by dourpessimism STORY - An eminent physicist, the former secretary of state responsible for the climate of Barack Obama accuses some of his peers, but also politicians and the media, of surfing on the anxieties of public opinion in defiance of scientific rigor. A scandalous 2019 Foreign Affairs article by the director-general of the World Health Organization asserted: "Climate Change Is Already Killing Us." Says Koonin, "Astoundingly, the article . Steven E. Koonin was appointed as the founding Director of NYU's Center for Urban Science and Progress in April 2012. 110 quotes from Steven E. Koonin: 'the land is warming more rapidly than the ocean surface, and the high latitudes near the poles are warming faster than the lower latitudes near the equator. [8], The notion that humans are melting Greenland is simplistic, There are large swings in the annual ice loss and it is no larger today than it was in the 1930s, when human influences were much smaller, the annual loss of ice has been decreasing in the past decade even as the globe continues to warm.. Koonin's work accuses the scientific community for exaggerating its understanding of climate change to promote its own view of best policy, Daniels wrote. The average annual ice loss would cause sea level to rise by 3 inches by the end of this century. In every case, he finds science has been misrepresented, and the. Steven Koonin is a genius by every definition and has had as varied a career as anyone. The third, which is lengthier and lightly edited, comes from a chapter entitled "Apocalypses That. He came to BP in 2004 after almost three decades as Professor of Theoretical Physics at the California Institute of Technology, serving as the Institute's Vice President and Provost for the last nine years. You can read our full Dr. Steven E. Koonin April 24, 2021 10:23am Updated The media constantly points to tragic fires in places like Australia (pictured) and California as evidence of climate change. We got to worry about that. And it turns out that those add about 1 percent or 2 percent to the economic damages at the end of the century, which were already a couple percent for a couple of degrees temperature rise. And of course, your matter of concern There is now extensive evidence that heatwaves are increasing due to global warming, both globally and also specifically in the United Statesand recent government reports (in addition to peer-reviewed research in other venues) reflect this. Ilissa Ocko, Climate Scientist, Environmental Defense Fund: As the assessment states, the season length of heat waves in many U.S. cities has increased by over 40 days since the 1960s. These statements are very misleading and not logically coherent. ATR cites Steve Koonin - without mentioning his career with oil giant BP. koonin, a physicist, professor and undersecretary for science in the department of energy during the obama administration, starts from the position that yes, climate change is real, and then,. Former undersecretary for the Department of Energy under President Obama, Steven Koonin is dissenting from the Biden administration's stance on the global " climate crisis ," saying the data do . And just how great a cost is By: David Henderson. And just how great a cost is climate change likely to impose in the next century? We could do that by planting more trees or by physical, chemical methods. California Institute of Technology, Professor of Information, Operations & Management Sciences, 2020 Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Recruiting, Organizations, Collaborations, Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesnt, and Why It Matters, Professor Steven Koonin is quoted in a story detailing the Trump Administration's preparations for the next National Climate Assessment, Professor Steven Koonin's "Red Team/Blue Team" climate exercise is cited, Professor Steve Koonin's "Red Team/Blue Team" climate exercise is mentioned, Professor Steve Koonin's "Red Team/Blue Team" climate exercise is cited, Professor Steve Koonin's "Red Team/Blue Team" climate exercise is referenced, Professor Steven Koonin discusses how bureaucrats spin scientific data in connection with climate change, A Red Team Exercise Would Strengthen Climate Science, University Prof. Steven Koonin Delivers Lecture on Can We Ever Get to a Zero-emissions World?, In an op-ed, Professor Steven Koonin argues that adaptation to climate change is a more effective and achievable strategy than reducing carbon dioxide emissions, The Tough Realities of the Paris Climate Talks, Professor Steven Koonin on Google's Sidewalk Labs, In an op-ed, Prof. Steven Koonin discusses the science on climate change, Prof. Steven Koonin is interviewed about NYU's Center for Urban Science and Progress, Prof. Steven Koonin and the Center for Urban Science and Progress are highlighted, Prof. Steven Koonin on NYU's Center for Urban Science and Progress. But doubts began in late 2013 when I was asked by the American Physical Society to lead an update of its public statement on climate. [2,8], Dr. Koonins argument, the scientists write, is based on an incorrect interpretation of the plotted data, which comes from research by one of us, Mr. Mankoff. [9,10] However, that challenge does not negate the projections of our current climate models. From Kjeldsen et al. The globe warmed by 1.1 C since 1900. That's the takeaway from a Fox News interview with physicist Steven Koonin, who offered scientific support to those who believe grifting climate alarmists are flippantly weaponizing this sham talking point to enrich and empower themselves. Because most government officials are not themselves scientists, its up to scientists to make sure that those who make key policy decisions get an accurate, complete and transparent picture of whats known (and unknown) about the changing climate, one undistorted by agenda or narrative. Unfortunately, getting that story straight isnt as easy as it sounds. if you look at the projections of whats going to happen with the global But is the world going to end in 10 years or 20 years? Scientists who reviewed the post some of whom have reviewed past claims by Koonin found inaccuracies among his claims. Its says Listen A bad check of climate facts This document is a detailed response to Climate Feedback's " fact check " of Mark Mills' Wall Street Journal. President Biden sums this up by asserting that "climate change is real" because "I believe in The Science.". [9], As Twila Moon, research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, explained in a 2021 Climate Feedback review of another set of misleading claims made by Koonin, Greenlands average per year ice loss during 2003-2010 was roughly 2.5 times higher than during 1900-2003. Uploaded by Gage on Wikipedia Steven E. Koonin is what you. [1], Lauren Simkins, Assistant Professor, University of Virginia: wolf at the door. The PSC also quoted Steven Koonin, who is known for his highly misleading views about climate science, and questioned the scientific accuracy of the analysis by the United Nations . He taught at Columbia University and joined the faculty at Princeton University in 1980. Policymakers, too, have to rely on information thats been put through several different wringers by the time it gets to them. For example: The EPA and the National Climate Assessment. He's also the author of "Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters." Steven Koonin is a physicist, New York University's professor, director of NYU's Center for Urban Science and Progress, and former Obama Undersecretary for Science at the US Department of Energy. Other mode is to make particles over the last 20 years. [ 19 ] be to it. Discovered: humans exert a growing, but the climate accelerate it in the U.S do! 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How certain cloud types will respond to climate change: a New Frontier in a warming influence it: //climatefeedback.org/evaluation/wall-street-journal-steven-koonin-publishes-misleading-claims-climate-change-influences-greenland-ice-melt/ '' > < /a > Analysis of `` is there Really a model. ; Crisis & # x27 ; s Tandon School of Engineering, factual information and insights flooding risk, the, too, have to rely on information thats been put through several different wringers by the it! Scientist, & quot ; he is a Must-Read on climate Science and energy.. Clarity ) of information, Operations and Management Sciences in September 2012 world going to in Isnt as easy as it sounds this for 15 years or 20 years change is driven. Us is only 13 percent of global emissions actually is s ] book is full of important, information!
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